dimanche, octobre 23, 2005

Retour sur les marchés

It is important to note that the authors are not against intervention [de Washington sur les marchés financiers] per se. They note that letting plunging markets fix themselves could result in economic chaos. But they do warn that the secrecy and growing involvement of private-sector actors threatens to foster enormous moral hazards. Major financial institutions may be acting as de facto agencies of the state, and thus not competing on a level playing field. There are signs that repeated intervention in recent years has corrupted the system.

This aggressive manipulation of the system took place on Alan Greenspan's watch as Chairman of the FRB. The authors don't discuss the fact that Greenspan is to retire at the end of next January and the White House is having trouble finding a replacement the markets will believe in. It may be that no credible candidate wants to take the baton from Greenspan at a time when it seems likely that the market will implode. Observers note that earlier changes of the FRB chair have generally been followed by much buffeting in the markets as they test the new maestro. Market drops are common. Present risks include the American housing bubble blowing out, oil prices exploding, and inflation blowing in, at a time when the twin deficits of trade and budget are already in the troposphere. This situation points to the likelihood that the Plunge Protection Team will be working overtime early next year.

-Présentation de l'analyse de J. Embry et A. Hepburn par Japan Focus via Z Mag

Ajout 24 octobre:

a deflationary spiral can take place in America. [L'idée de l'inflation assurée est fondée sur la théorie économique Keynesienne et monétariste] reiterated by the likes of Ben Bernanke, who wrote a propaganda paper telling us that the U.S. could, if need be, fire currency out of helicopters to keep the U.S. economy inflated. He promised us that we would never repeat the experience of the 1930s or the more recent Japanese experience.

Americans were given similar assurances during the early 1930s. So you would do well to consider with a huge grain of salt what our policy makers are telling us. History strongly suggests it is only a matter of time before the physics of over-indebtedness simply causes the system to collapse when debt can no longer be serviced. And when that happens, demand for all manner of products, including oil, will shrink to levels virtually no well-respected economist is building into their models.

Oil Moving toward $100 Even without Shocks?, Jay Taylor, 3 octobre 2005

originellement de J Taylor’s Gold & Technology Stocks

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